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Pot Odds

"Pot Odds" is the ratio of what is already in the pot to the amount you would have to bet to stay in the hand. So, if there is $36 in the pot, and you would need to bet $6 to stay in the hand, the pot odds are 36 to 6, or 6 to 1. 

Why would you need to know this? 

One example of using pot odds is when your hand is not yet the best hand at the table, but it could be if the right card comes up next. For instance, in Texas Hold'em, with four cards on the board you hold four clubs. The odds of completing the flush on the river are roughly 5 to 1 against you. That means for you to bet there should be at least five times the bet amount in the pot. If the bet to you is $2, then there should be at least $10 in the pot to make it worth calling. 

Suppose there were $24 in the pot when you were making that decision. The odds of landing that club and getting the best hand at the table were 5 to 1. The pot would pay you 12 to 1 on your bet. That makes calling the bet the right decision to make. You may not land your club and win the hand, but over the long run playing this way will be to your advantage. 

Another instance of using pot odds is after the river, when the final bet comes to you. If the pot holds $40, and the bet in front of you is $4, you can use pot odds to decide what to do. The pot is laying you Ten to One odds. ($40 against your $4 bet). Even though you feel your opponent may have the better hand, do you think he is ten times more likely to have a better hand? If so, fold. If not, call the bet and see his cards. 

There are plenty of times at the poker table when you will be asking yourself, "Is it worth staying in this hand?". Being able to use pot odds will help you answer that question correctly more often.

 

Probability

In the game of Hold'em there are plenty of times you will need a card to show itself on the flop, turn, or the river. For instance, you may need to know the odds of catching that club on the river for the flush, or flopping the third 8 to go with the two in your hand. In order to compute the odds of finding the card you need on the board, you will need to know two things. The first is how many 'Outs' you have.

'Outs' are simply the number of cards that can 'make' your hand. If you are looking for that flush on the river, there are 9 cards that can help you. (13 clubs in the deck - 4 clubs in your hand or on the board = 9 clubs remaining).

The second thing to know is the number of unseen cards. Since two cards are in your hand, and four are on the board, there are 46 card remaining. (52-2=50 followed by 50-4=46).

Now computing the odds is a simple division problem. 9 cards that can help, divided by 46 cards out there, equals 19.6%. (9?19.56%). That's how you do it. Ok, 9?isn't so simple, but still, that's how it's done.

Information you can use right away:

Flush: If you hold a four flush, the odds of catching it on the turn are 19.1% , on the river is 19.6% . Catching it on the turn or the river is 35.0%

Open-Ended Straight: Odds of catching your card on the turn, 17.0% . On the river, 17.4% . On the turn or the river, 31.5%

Gutshot Straight: Catching your card on the turn, 8.5% . Catching your cad on the river, 8.7% . Catching it on the turn or the river, 16.5%

Trips: Turn your pair into Three-of-a-Kind on the turn, 4.3% . Catch at the river, 4.3% . Catch at the turn or the river, 8.4% . With pocket pairs it is more likely you'll want to catch on the flop. Odds of that are 11.8%

Number of Outs Available to Improve Your Hand
Outs You Hold Hope to Make
2 A Pair Three of a Kind
4 Two Pair Full House
4 Inside Straight Straight
8 Open-ended Straight Straight
9 Four Flush Flush
15 Open Straight Flush Draw Striaght, a Flush, or Straight Flush

Probability of Catching an Out
Outs Turn (%) River (%) Turn or River
20 42.6 43.5 67.5%
19 40.4 41.3 65.0%
18 38.3 39.1 62.4%
17 36.2 37.0 59.8%
16 34.0 34.8 57.0%
15 31.9 32.6 54.1%
14 29.8 30.4 51.2%
13 27.7 28.3 48.1%
12 25.5 26.1 45.0%
11 23.4 23.9 41.7%
10 21.3 21.7 38.4%
9 19.1 19.6 35.0%
8 17.0 17.4 31.5%
7 14.9 15.2 27.8%
6 12.8 13.0 24.1%
5 10.6 10.9 20.4%
4 8.5 8.7 16.5%
3 6.4 6.5 12.5%
2 4.3 4.3 8.4%
1 2.1 2.2 4.3%


 


 
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